NHL Games by Day of the Week: Home Wins and Totals Monday to Sunday
Twenty NHL regular seasons sorted Monday to Sunday: where the schedule bunches, how home teams fare against their rating, and whether any night really runs high on goals.
Written by Joon-ho BaekIce Hockey Predictions specialist
- Sport
- Ice Hockey
- Question
- Does the day of the week an NHL game is played change the home win rate, the favourite rate or the total goals?
- Sample
- NHL regular season 2005-06 to 2024-25, 23,990 completed games (neutral-site games excluded)
- home win rate on Wednesday, best day55.6%
- home win rate on Sunday, lowest day53.4%
- over 5.5 on Wednesday, highest day51.1%
- of all games are played on Saturday23.7%
Hockey bettors love a schedule angle, and day of the week is the simplest one there is. If Saturday crowds lift home teams, or tired Sunday afternoon legs drag totals down, the calendar should show it. I sorted 23,940 regular-season games from 2005-06 to 2024-25 by local match date to find out.
The headline answer is that the day barely moves the needle. Friday to Sunday games produced a 54.7% home win rate and 50.0% over 5.5, while Monday to Thursday produced 54.6% and 49.7%. If you want the game-by-game work instead, my free NHL picks page is where goaltending, special teams and travel get weighed properly. The day-level detail below is still worth knowing, mainly so you can ignore the noise with confidence.
Window 1Saturday carries nearly a quarter of the NHL schedule
Start with volume, because it decides how much faith each later number deserves. Saturday hosts 23.7% of all games, and Thursday (18.9%) and Tuesday (17.7%) are the busy weeknights. Monday sits at the bottom on 9.2%, with Wednesday on 9.7%, Sunday on 10% and Friday on 10.8%.
View the data: share of nhl games by day of week
| Regular season, % of all games | |
|---|---|
| Monday | 9.2% |
| Tuesday | 17.7% |
| Wednesday | 9.7% |
| Thursday | 18.9% |
| Friday | 10.8% |
| Saturday | 23.7% |
| Sunday | 10.0% |
That lopsided shape matters for everything that follows. A Saturday figure rests on far more games than a Monday or Wednesday one, so the quieter nights carry wider error bands, and a striking number on a thin day deserves extra suspicion before I act on it.
Window 2Home teams fall short of their rating every day
Each row sets the Elo-rated home win probability against what actually happened. The pattern is consistent: on all seven days the home team won less often than the rating expected. Saturday home sides won 55.2% against a rated 56.8%, and Sunday was the weakest day at 53.4% against a rated 56.5%.
Wednesday looks best at 55.6%, but that comes from 2,324 games with a range of ยฑ2.0, and Sunday carries the same ยฑ2.0. The two ranges overlap, so I cannot call Wednesday a genuinely stronger home night.
View the data: home win %: rated vs actual by weekday
| Rated | Home team won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday (2,211 games) | 56.8% | 55.0% | ยฑ2.1 |
| Tuesday (4,227 games) | 57.0% | 54.1% | ยฑ1.5 |
| Wednesday (2,324 games) | 56.7% | 55.6% | ยฑ2 |
| Thursday (4,516 games) | 57.2% | 54.3% | ยฑ1.5 |
| Friday (2,587 games) | 56.6% | 54.6% | ยฑ1.9 |
| Saturday (5,679 games) | 56.8% | 55.2% | ยฑ1.3 |
| Sunday (2,396 games) | 56.5% | 53.4% | ยฑ2 |
What I take from this is that the shortfall against the rating is more interesting than the day-to-day ranking. It points to a rating that leans slightly too hard on home ice across the board, not to any weekday where crowds suddenly matter more.
Window 3Friday games go to overtime most often
The heatmap puts every outcome side by side. Games tied after 60 minutes range from 21.7% on Sunday to 24.5% on Friday, which is the widest relative spread on the board and relevant to anyone pricing regulation-time markets or overtime props.
Favourites tell an odd story. Rated favourites won 59.1% on Sunday, the best day, against 57.9% overall and a low of 56.3% on Tuesday, even though Sunday was the worst day for home teams. The obvious caveat applies here: the day a game is played is tied to who plays it, and weekend slates feature more strong-versus-weak matchups, so a day effect can really be a fixture-mix effect.
View the data: results and totals by day of week
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 55.0% | 54.1% | 55.6% | 54.3% | 54.6% | 55.2% | 53.4% |
| Over 5.5 | 48.7% | 49.2% | 51.1% | 49.8% | 49.3% | 50.7% | 49.1% |
| Over 6.5 | 38.3% | 38.9% | 40.1% | 38.9% | 38.3% | 40.2% | 38.5% |
| Tied after 60 | 22.3% | 22.6% | 23.0% | 22.3% | 24.5% | 23.6% | 21.7% |
| Favourite won | 57.6% | 56.3% | 58.6% | 57.2% | 58.6% | 58.5% | 59.1% |
Over 6.5 barely moves, sitting between 38.3% and 40.2%. Saturday and Wednesday lead that row too, which at least keeps the totals picture internally consistent.
Window 4Wednesday and Saturday lean over, Monday leans under
The table turns over 5.5 rates into fair odds. Wednesday games went over most often at 51.1%, a fair price of 1.96, with Saturday close behind on 50.7% and 1.97. Monday was the lowest at 48.7%, a fair price of 2.05, and Sunday followed at 49.1%.
Goals per game only ranged from 5.76 on Friday to 5.88 on Saturday, around an overall 5.83. The full sample went over 5.5 at 49.8% with a range of ยฑ0.6, and the individual days sit within a couple of points of that.
| Day | Games | Goals/game | Over 5.5 | 95% range | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 2,211 | 5.80 | 48.7% | ยฑ2.1 | 2.05 |
| Tuesday | 4,227 | 5.82 | 49.2% | ยฑ1.5 | 2.03 |
| Wednesday | 2,324 | 5.85 | 51.1% | ยฑ2.0 | 1.96 |
| Thursday | 4,516 | 5.85 | 49.8% | ยฑ1.5 | 2.01 |
| Friday | 2,587 | 5.76 | 49.3% | ยฑ1.9 | 2.03 |
| Saturday | 5,679 | 5.88 | 50.7% | ยฑ1.3 | 1.97 |
| Sunday | 2,396 | 5.79 | 49.1% | ยฑ2.0 | 2.04 |
| All | 23,940 | 5.83 | 49.8% | ยฑ0.6 | 2.01 |
Those fair prices are thin margins once a bookmaker's overround is applied. I treat the day as a faint tiebreaker on totals, never a reason to bet on its own; goaltender confirmation and back-to-back fatigue will move a line far more than the weekday.
Best window
- Discount the weekday label
Weekend and weekday games returned 54.7% and 54.6% home wins, so the day alone gives you essentially nothing on the moneyline.
- Question home-ice pricing
Home teams fell short of their rating on every day, Saturday included at 55.2% against 56.8%, so be wary of prices that lean heavily on home ice.
- Use totals as tiebreakers
Wednesday (51.1%) and Saturday (50.7%) edge over 5.5 while Monday trails at 48.7%; let that nudge a close totals decision, not start one.
Questions bettors ask
Which day do NHL home teams win most often?
Wednesday, at 55.6% across 2,324 games, but its range of ยฑ2.0 overlaps the lowest day, Sunday at 53.4%. The gap is not strong enough to treat Wednesday as a real home-ice night.
Do NHL games score more on Saturdays?
Saturday averaged 5.88 goals per game, the highest of any day, and went over 5.5 at 50.7%. That is only slightly above the overall 5.83 goals and 49.8% over rate.
Are NHL favourites more reliable on certain days?
Rated favourites won 59.1% on Sunday and 56.3% on Tuesday, against 57.9% overall. Part of that likely reflects which teams are scheduled on each day rather than the day itself.
I'm Joon-ho Baek, and I cover ice hockey predictions at fixedmatches.vip โ focusing on goaltending, special teams and the metrics that actually move results.
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