NHL Home Ice by Month: When Does Home Advantage Peak in the Season?
Home ice in the NHL is a modest edge that shifts with the calendar. It is strongest in March, softest in February, and it falls short of its rating in every month.
Written by Joon-ho BaekIce Hockey Predictions specialist
- Sport
- Ice Hockey
- Question
- Does the NHL home win rate change with the month of the regular season, and does it beat the rated home probability?
- Sample
- NHL regular season 2005-06 to 2024-25, 23,990 completed games (neutral-site games excluded)
- home win rate, all regular-season games54.6%
- home win rate in March, the peak month55.8%
- home win rate in February, the low month51.7%
- regular-season games checked23,940
Bettors tend to treat NHL home ice as a fixed tax on the away side. I wanted to know whether it changes as the regular season moves from October to the April run-in, and whether home teams actually deliver what a rating model expects of them. This study covers 23,940 regular-season games with neutral sites excluded, and it sits behind the calendar notes on my ice hockey betting predictions page.
The headline answer is that home teams won 54.6% overall, including overtime and shootouts, which is fair odds of 1.83. The month matters, though only slightly. March peaks at 55.8% and February sinks to 51.7%. Across the whole sample a public Elo rating model expected 56.8%, so home ice has consistently been worth a little less than the ratings implied.
Window 1Home teams fall short of their rating every month
Each row sets the rating model's average pre-game home probability against the rate home teams actually achieved. In every month the actual figure sits below the rated one. The gap is widest in February and narrowest in March and Apr-May.
At the start of the season, October home teams won 54.4% against a rated 57.0%. By the run-in, April-May home teams won 55.7% against a rated 56.4%. The ratings barely move across the calendar, but the results do, and that is where the calendar question becomes useful.
Rated = average pre-game Elo home win probability. Bars show 95% range on the actual rate.
View the data: home win %: rated vs actual by month
| Rated | Home team won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| October (2,910 games) | 57.0% | 54.4% | ยฑ1.8 |
| November (3,711 games) | 57.1% | 54.8% | ยฑ1.6 |
| December (3,737 games) | 57.0% | 55.5% | ยฑ1.6 |
| January (3,713 games) | 57.0% | 54.3% | ยฑ1.6 |
| February (3,431 games) | 56.5% | 51.7% | ยฑ1.7 |
| March (4,352 games) | 56.7% | 55.8% | ยฑ1.5 |
| Apr-May (2,086 games) | 56.4% | 55.7% | ยฑ2.1 |
The rated line here comes from an Elo model, not bookmaker prices. It shows that a generic rating overstates home ice, but it does not show what the market charges. I read it as a warning against pricing every home side off a single standard bump.
Window 2February's dip comes from extra away regulation wins
Across all games, home teams won inside 60 minutes in 42.9% of games and away teams in 34.2%. The remainder were level after regulation. The monthly home regulation share runs from 41.1% to 43.7%. February is the low point and October the high.
The middle band, games tied after 60, stays in a narrow channel from month to month. February's slump is therefore not a story about more coin-flip overtimes. Away teams are taking a larger slice of decisions inside regulation.
View the data: home regulation wins, overtime and away wins
| Home win in 60 | Tied after 60 | Away win in 60 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| October | 43.7% | 21.5% | 34.8% |
| November | 43.1% | 23.3% | 33.6% |
| December | 43.2% | 23.5% | 33.3% |
| January | 42.7% | 22.1% | 35.2% |
| February | 41.1% | 23.3% | 35.6% |
| March | 43.3% | 23.6% | 33.1% |
| Apr-May | 43.5% | 22.4% | 34.1% |
That is relevant to anyone who bets the three-way regulation market. In February the away regulation price deserves a closer look than it usually gets, because that is the outcome that grows.
Window 3The February trough is deeper in the recent decade
When I split the sample into two decades, the shape survives but the detail changes. From 2005-06 to 2014-15 the monthly home win rate ran from 52.7% to 57.6%. From 2015-16 to 2024-25 it ran from 50.9% to 56.0%. February is the low month in both eras, and it is lower in the recent one.
The main caveat belongs here. The 2012-13 and 2020-21 seasons began in January, so their games only feed the winter months. The 2020-21 season was also played largely without crowds, which pulled home rates down. Some of February's weakness, especially in the recent era, is probably that season showing through rather than a pure calendar effect.
View the data: home win % by month in two eras
| 2005-06 to 2014-15 | 2015-16 to 2024-25 | |
|---|---|---|
| October | 54.7% | 54.0% |
| November | 54.5% | 55.1% |
| December | 55.9% | 55.2% |
| January | 55.0% | 53.7% |
| February | 52.7% | 50.9% |
| March | 55.6% | 56.0% |
| Apr-May | 57.6% | 54.2% |
Even so, the pattern is not confined to one decade. My working hunch is that a dense midwinter schedule wears down legs and goaltending on both benches, which flattens the home edge. I treat that as a hypothesis to test, not a finding.
Window 4Fair home odds range from 1.79 to 1.93
The table turns each month into fair odds and adds goal difference. Over all games the fair home price is 1.83 and the home goal difference is +0.28 per game. March is the shortest at 1.79 with +0.33, and December follows at 1.80. February is the clear outlier at 1.93, with goal difference falling to +0.16.
Check the 95% ranges before you lean on any single row. March, with 4,352 games, carries ยฑ1.5. February, with 3,431 games, carries ยฑ1.7. The February shortfall clears that noise, while the gaps between the stronger months mostly do not.
| Month | Games | Home win % | 95% range | Fair odds | Goal diff/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | 2,910 | 54.4% | ยฑ1.8 | 1.84 | +0.27 |
| November | 3,711 | 54.8% | ยฑ1.6 | 1.82 | +0.31 |
| December | 3,737 | 55.5% | ยฑ1.6 | 1.80 | +0.29 |
| January | 3,713 | 54.3% | ยฑ1.6 | 1.84 | +0.27 |
| February | 3,431 | 51.7% | ยฑ1.7 | 1.93 | +0.16 |
| March | 4,352 | 55.8% | ยฑ1.5 | 1.79 | +0.33 |
| Apr-May | 2,086 | 55.7% | ยฑ2.1 | 1.80 | +0.30 |
| All | 23,940 | 54.6% | ยฑ0.6 | 1.83 | +0.28 |
I use these figures as a baseline, not as a trigger to bet. A home price only interests me when it is clearly shorter than the month's fair line after I have also checked goaltending, special teams and travel.
Best window
- Discount February home sides
February home teams won only 51.7%, with fair odds of 1.93 and goal difference down to +0.16. Shade your home-ice adjustment down when the calendar turns.
- Respect March home ice
March produced the highest home win rate at 55.8% across 4,352 games, with a tight ยฑ1.5 range. It is still slightly below its rating, so do not overpay.
- Price below generic ratings
The rating model expected 56.8% and home teams delivered 54.6%. Any blanket home bump you use is probably too generous in every month.
Questions bettors ask
In which month do NHL home teams win most often?
In this sample March is the peak, with home teams winning 55.8% of 4,352 games. February is the lowest at 51.7%.
What are fair odds for an NHL home team?
Across 23,940 regular-season games the home win rate of 54.6% converts to fair odds of 1.83. By month, that ranges from 1.79 in March to 1.93 in February.
How often do NHL games go to overtime by month?
The share of games tied after 60 minutes stays in a narrow band, from 21.5% in October to 23.6% in March. February's home weakness comes from extra away regulation wins rather than more overtime.
I'm Joon-ho Baek, and I cover ice hockey predictions at fixedmatches.vip โ focusing on goaltending, special teams and the metrics that actually move results.
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