Which Day Do Favourites Win Most? UK and Irish Racing by Weekday
Favourite strike rates barely move from Monday to Sunday. What changes is how fairly the favourite is priced, and Saturday is where the market leaves the least on the table.
Written by Seung-min YoonHorse Racing Tips specialist
- Sport
- Horse Racing
- Question
- Does the day of the week a UK or Irish race is run on change how often the favourite wins and what backing favourites returns?
- Sample
- 19,498 UK and Irish races, June 2024 to August 2026 (see method for missing early-month dates in 2024-25)
- Favourites that won, all days34.8%
- Favourites that won on Wednesday35.4%
- Favourites that won on Friday33.9%
- Return backing Saturday favourites−0.3%
Before I put a single name on my daily racing selections page, I want to know what kind of day I'm working with. So I asked a plain question of 19,498 UK and Irish races: does the weekday change how often the favourite wins, and what backing it actually returns? The headline answer is that the strike rate hardly shifts. Favourites won 34.8% across all days, with Wednesday highest at 35.4% and Friday lowest at 33.9%.
The more useful story is in the price. Backing every favourite at SP lost −3.4% after commission, but Saturday favourites returned −0.3%. That is the only day where the favourite won more often than its price implied. The charts below show where that edge comes from and how far I would trust it.
Window 1Only Saturday favourites outrun their starting price
Each row sets the average implied chance at SP against the actual win rate. On six days the won dot sits just short of the priced dot, which is the bookmaker's margin doing its work. Monday is a clean example: favourites were priced at 35.3% and won 34.5%.
Saturday reverses that. Favourites won 35.1% against 34.0% priced, a gap of +1.1 points. The market is slightly less confident about Saturday jollies than it should be, perhaps because bigger fields and more public money push the price out.
View the data: favourites by day of the week: priced vs won
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday (2,432 races) | 35.3% | 34.5% | ±1.9 |
| Tuesday (2,135 races) | 35.5% | 35.1% | ±2 |
| Wednesday (2,380 races) | 35.9% | 35.4% | ±1.9 |
| Thursday (3,012 races) | 35.7% | 34.9% | ±1.7 |
| Friday (3,436 races) | 34.6% | 33.9% | ±1.6 |
| Saturday (3,901 races) | 34.0% | 35.1% | ±1.5 |
| Sunday (2,102 races) | 35.2% | 34.3% | ±2 |
Keep the error bars in view, though. Wednesday's 35.4% carries ±1.9 points and Friday's 33.9% carries ±1.6, so the gap between the best and worst days sits comfortably inside the noise. On strike rate alone, the weekday tells you very little.
Window 2Race type matters far more than the day
This heatmap splits favourites into Flat and jumps, handicap and non-handicap, and the contrast between rows is far bigger than anything across the columns. Saturday Flat handicap favourites won just 28.3%, while Saturday jumps non-handicap favourites won 47.8%. Same day, completely different proposition.
Weekday quirks do show up. Sunday jumps handicap favourites won 31.0%, and Wednesday Flat non-handicap favourites won 41.9%. With the smallest cell at 260 races, I read these as hints rather than rules.
Smallest cell: 260 races.
View the data: favourite win rate by weekday and race type
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat handicaps | 29.3% | 31.5% | 30.8% | 30.3% | 29.1% | 28.3% | 29.6% |
| Flat non-handicaps | 43.4% | 41.0% | 41.9% | 41.9% | 41.2% | 45.4% | 39.6% |
| Jumps handicaps | 31.6% | 28.3% | 29.6% | 29.1% | 29.3% | 30.1% | 31.0% |
| Jumps non-handicaps | 43.0% | 48.8% | 48.8% | 47.5% | 45.0% | 47.8% | 42.2% |
When I study a card, the first filter is always the race conditions. A handicap is built to stop the favourite winning, and the handicapper is usually good at it.
Window 3Saturday is the only day near break-even
Here is the flat-stake return at SP after 5% commission, split by Flat and jumps. Most bars sit firmly in the red, and the all-days figure of −3.4% is what blind favourite backing costs over time. Monday, at −4.9% overall, is among the most expensive days to follow the market leader.
Saturday stands apart. Flat favourites returned −0.7% and jumps favourites returned +0.4%, the only positive figure on the chart. One honest caveat applies here: Saturday cards carry the better races and the bigger handicaps, so the day is partly standing in for race quality. Those prices are also SP, known only at the off, so nobody could have taken them in advance.
View the data: backing every favourite: return by weekday
| Flat | Jumps | |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | −5.0% | −4.5% |
| Tuesday | −4.2% | −6.2% |
| Wednesday | −2.9% | −2.6% |
| Thursday | −5.7% | −2.6% |
| Friday | −4.2% | −4.7% |
| Saturday | −0.7% | +0.4% |
| Sunday | −1.3% | −5.2% |
| All days | −3.4% | −3.4% |
A tiny positive return from one slice of one day is not a strategy. To me it means the Saturday market prices its favourites fairly, which tells me to look for value elsewhere in those races rather than in the market leader.
Window 4Bigger Saturday fields bring more long-priced winners
The table adds field size and upsets. Saturday cards averaged 9.4 runners and 8.6% of races went to a 20.00+ winner. Monday averaged 9.2 runners with only 6.7% of races won at 20.00+. Saturday also staged 3,921 races, the most of any day, against 2,143 on Tuesday.
Fair odds tell the same story from the other side. Wednesday's favourites justified a fair price of 2.83, Friday's 2.95. That is a small spread, and it fits with everything above.
| Day | Races | Runners | 20.00+ winners | Fav won | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 2,457 | 9.2 | 6.7% | 34.5% | 2.90 |
| Tuesday | 2,143 | 9.0 | 7.4% | 35.1% | 2.85 |
| Wednesday | 2,389 | 9.1 | 7.7% | 35.4% | 2.83 |
| Thursday | 3,025 | 9.2 | 7.6% | 34.9% | 2.86 |
| Friday | 3,455 | 9.4 | 8.0% | 33.9% | 2.95 |
| Saturday | 3,921 | 9.4 | 8.6% | 35.1% | 2.85 |
| Sunday | 2,108 | 9.2 | 7.6% | 34.3% | 2.91 |
| All days | 19,498 | 9.2 | 7.8% | 34.8% | 2.88 |
For an each-way player this is the useful part. Bigger fields and more big-priced winners on Saturday mean more places to target and more runners the market can misjudge.
Best window
- Filter by race type first
Saturday jumps non-handicap favourites won 47.8% while Saturday Flat handicap favourites won 28.3%. The conditions of the race tell you far more than the day it falls on.
- Respect Saturday market leaders
Saturday favourites won 35.1% against 34.0% priced and returned −0.3%. Don't oppose them just because the card is busy, but don't expect a profit from backing them blind.
- Hunt each-way value at weekends
Saturday fields averaged 9.4 runners with 8.6% of races won at 20.00+. That is where I spend more time on place markets and less on short-priced favourites.
Questions bettors ask
Which day of the week do favourites win most in UK and Irish racing?
Wednesday had the highest favourite strike rate at 35.4% from 2,380 races. The range of ±1.9 points means it isn't clearly better than other days, as the all-days figure is 34.8%.
Is it profitable to back every favourite?
No. Backing every favourite at SP returned −3.4% after commission. Saturday came closest at −0.3%, which is still a small loss.
Do more outsiders win on Saturdays?
Yes, slightly. 8.6% of Saturday races were won at 20.00+, compared with 6.7% on Mondays, which fits with Saturday's larger average field of 9.4 runners.
I'm Seung-min Yoon, and I write the horse racing tips at fixedmatches.vip — reading form, going and pace setups rather than chasing the name at the top of the market.
View profile →
