Tennis by Day of the Week: Monday First Rounds to Sunday Finals
Outside the Slams, the week of a tour event runs from crowded first rounds to thin weekend finals. The prices hold up well, but Monday and Sunday lean in opposite directions.
Written by Edmund HartleyTennis Match Analysis specialist
- Sport
- Tennis
- Question
- At regular tour events, do tennis favourites win more or less often than priced depending on the day of the week the match is played?
- Sample
- ATP and WTA tour-level singles, seasons 2010-2019 and 2022-2025, 68,842 completed matches (68,730 with closing prices); this study uses the tour events outside the Grand Slams
- Monday favourites won (priced 66.7%)68.2%
- Sunday favourites won (priced 67.4%)67.1%
- Flat return backing Monday favouritesโ0.6%
- Share of Friday matches that are quarter-finals59.8%
A tour event has a shape. Monday and Tuesday are full of first-round matches on outside courts, Friday belongs to the quarter-finals, and the weekend narrows to a handful of players with a trophy in view. I wanted to know whether favourites win more or less often than their prices suggest depending on where in that week a match falls.
The headline answer is modest but consistent. Across 54,959 priced tour-event matches, favourites were priced at 67.5% and won 67.9%, so the market is close to accurate overall. Monday is the day favourites beat their price most, winning 68.2% against 66.7% priced, while Saturday and Sunday favourites fell slightly short. That pattern shapes how I read the early days of a draw when I put together my ATP and WTA predictions each week.
Window 1The day of the week is mostly the round
Before reading anything into weekdays, look at what is actually played on them. 92.7% of Monday matches and 95.8% of Tuesday matches were first- or second-round ties. Friday is quarter-final day, with 59.8% of its matches at that stage, and 58.4% of Saturday matches were semi-finals or finals.
Sunday is the odd one. It carries two different sports at once: 47.8% of its matches were early-round ties at events that start on the weekend, and 37.8% were semi-finals or finals.
View the data: what gets played on each day
| R1-R2 | R3 / R16 / RR | Quarter-finals | Semis & final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 92.8% | 6.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Tuesday | 95.8% | 3.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Wednesday | 92.3% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Thursday | 64.8% | 17.2% | 17.3% | 0.7% |
| Friday | 24.1% | 4.8% | 59.9% | 11.2% |
| Saturday | 27.4% | 4.0% | 10.3% | 58.3% |
| Sunday | 47.7% | 13.1% | 1.4% | 37.8% |
This is the main caveat for everything that follows. A weekday pattern is largely a round pattern in disguise, so the same-round table at the end matters more than the headline day-by-day figures.
Window 2Monday favourites outrun their price; weekend ones fall short
On Mondays, across 8,649 matches, favourites won 68.2% against 66.7% priced, a gap of +1.5 points with a 95% range of ยฑ1.0. That is the only day where the gap clears its own margin of error. Tuesday, the busiest day with 13,151 priced matches, showed favourites winning 67.7% against 67.3% priced, which is barely distinguishable from fair.
The weekend tips the other way. Saturday favourites won 67.2% against 67.7% priced, a gap of โ0.5 points, and Sunday favourites won 67.1% against 67.4%, a gap of โ0.3. Both sit well inside their ranges, so I treat them as a lean rather than a finding.
View the data: favourites by day of the week
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday (8,649 matches) | 66.7% | 68.2% | ยฑ1 |
| Tuesday (13,151 matches) | 67.3% | 67.7% | ยฑ0.8 |
| Wednesday (10,650 matches) | 67.9% | 68.3% | ยฑ0.9 |
| Thursday (8,453 matches) | 68.1% | 68.2% | ยฑ1 |
| Friday (6,362 matches) | 67.6% | 67.9% | ยฑ1.1 |
| Saturday (4,153 matches) | 67.7% | 67.2% | ยฑ1.4 |
| Sunday (3,541 matches) | 67.4% | 67.1% | ยฑ1.5 |
My reading is surface-agnostic but schedule-aware. On a Monday the better player is often fresh off a bye week or a long break, facing a qualifier or a wildcard who may have played three matches already. The market seems to underrate that freshness gap slightly.
Window 3Backing every Monday favourite came closest to breaking even
Win rates only matter if they translate into returns at the closing price. Backing every favourite returned โ0.6% on Mondays, against โ2.1% over all tour-event days. By the weekend that slipped to โ3.1% on Saturdays and โ3.2% on Sundays.
The underdog side runs the opposite way. Backing every Monday underdog returned โ8.9%, the worst figure on the chart, while Sunday underdogs returned โ2.1%.
View the data: flat-stake returns by day of the week
| Back favourite | Back underdog | |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | โ0.6% | โ8.9% |
| Tuesday | โ2.3% | โ5.4% |
| Wednesday | โ2.2% | โ6.0% |
| Thursday | โ2.4% | โ5.3% |
| Friday | โ1.8% | โ4.4% |
| Saturday | โ3.1% | โ2.6% |
| Sunday | โ3.2% | โ2.1% |
| All tour events | โ2.1% | โ5.5% |
None of these days shows a profit, and I would not pretend otherwise. What the chart tells me is where the price is least generous: Monday outsiders are the poorest value in the week, and weekend favourites carry a little more of the cost than usual.
Window 4Same round, different day: the Monday edge survives
This table strips out the round effect by comparing like with like. First-round favourites on a Monday won 67.8% of 7,822 matches against 66.3% priced, a gap of +1.5 and a return of โ0.7%. On a Sunday, first-round favourites won 65.6% of 1,336 against 66.0% priced, with a return of โ3.3%. Wednesday first rounds sat in between, winning 67.9% of 2,959 against 66.8% priced and returning โ1.3%.
Finals follow the weekend lean. Sunday finals (1,131) went to the favourite 66.1% of the time against 66.8% priced, and Saturday finals (374) went to the favourite 63.6% against 65.1%, returning โ5.1%.
| Match | Matches | Priced | Won | Gap | Fav return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First round on Saturday | 240 | 65.7% | 65.4% | โ0.3 | โ2.5% |
| First round on Sunday | 1,336 | 66.0% | 65.6% | โ0.3 | โ3.3% |
| First round on Monday | 7,822 | 66.3% | 67.8% | +1.5 | โ0.7% |
| First round on Tuesday | 10,888 | 66.9% | 67.2% | +0.3 | โ2.4% |
| First round on Wednesday | 2,959 | 66.8% | 67.9% | +1.0 | โ1.3% |
| Final on Saturday | 374 | 65.1% | 63.6% | โ1.5 | โ5.1% |
| Final on Sunday | 1,131 | 66.8% | 66.1% | โ0.7 | โ3.5% |
So the Monday effect is not simply a first-round effect, because Sunday first rounds behave quite differently. The Saturday final sample is small, but a favourite who has played four matches in five days and faces an in-form opponent is exactly the kind of short price I approach with care.
Best window
- Respect Monday favourites
Monday first-round favourites won 67.8% against 66.3% priced across 7,822 matches. Fading them has been the costliest habit of the week, with Monday underdogs returning โ8.9%.
- Separate the two Sundays
Sunday mixes early-round ties at weekend-start events with finals, and the first-round half returned โ3.3% backing favourites. Check which kind of Sunday match you are looking at before applying any day-level figure.
- Question short weekend finals
Saturday finals went to the favourite 63.6% of the time against 65.1% priced. When a favourite arrives on the weekend after a heavy run of matches, I want a fair price rather than a short one.
Questions bettors ask
Do tennis favourites win more often on Mondays?
At tour events outside the Slams, Monday favourites won 68.2% against 66.7% priced over 8,649 matches. That +1.5 point gap was the best of any day of the week.
Is it profitable to back favourites in tennis finals?
Not on flat stakes in this data. Sunday finals returned โ3.5% backing the favourite and Saturday finals returned โ5.1%, with favourites winning slightly less often than priced on both days.
Which day of a tennis tournament is quarter-final day?
Friday. 59.8% of Friday matches at tour events were quarter-finals, while 58.4% of Saturday matches were semi-finals or finals.
I'm Edmund Hartley, based in Bristol, and I write the tennis betting predictions at fixedmatches.vip โ where surface, scheduling and form outweigh the rankings.
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