First Weeks of the Tennis Season: Favourites in the Australian Summer
Fresh legs, hot courts and rusty favourites. Here is how the opening fortnight and the Australian Open compare with the rest of the tour year once closing prices are set beside results.
Written by Edmund HartleyTennis Match Analysis specialist
- Sport
- Tennis
- Question
- Do tennis favourites win as often as their prices say in the first two weeks of the season and at the Australian Open, compared with the rest of the year?
- Sample
- ATP and WTA tour-level singles, seasons 2010-2019 and 2022-2025, 68,842 completed matches (68,730 with closing prices)
- Favourites won in week 1 of the season69.2%
- Favourites won in week 2 (Slam warm-up)65.0%
- Flat return backing Australian Open favouritesโ1.0%
- Favourites won, all matches69.3%
Every January I hear the same line: nobody knows who is sharp after the off-season, so the first weeks are a lottery. I wanted to test that against closing prices and completed results across ATP and WTA tour-level singles, rather than against the mood of the moment. The sample covers 68,730 priced matches.
The headline is calmer than the folklore. Favourites won 69.2% in week 1 against 69.3% across all matches, so the opening week behaves much like any other. The real oddity is week 2, the warm-up before Melbourne, where favourites won only 65.0%. If you want the matches I am looking at on a given day rather than the long view, my tennis betting predictions today page is where those live.
Window 1Week 2 is the most open window before Melbourne
Each row sets the average priced chance of the favourite beside how often they actually won. In week 1 the market priced favourites at 68.3% and they won 69.2%, a gap of +0.9 points. Week 2 is the one that stands apart: favourites priced at only 64.4% and winning 65.0%, the lowest rate of any window here.
At the Australian Open the picture flips. Favourites were priced at 73.6% and won 75.0%, which fits what best-of-five does to the men's draw and what a deep Slam field does to early rounds generally.
View the data: favourites: priced vs actual win rate
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 (season opener) (2,318 matches) | 68.3% | 69.2% | ยฑ1.9 |
| Week 2 (Slam warm-up) (1,484 matches) | 64.4% | 65.0% | ยฑ2.4 |
| Australian Open (3,452 matches) | 73.6% | 75.0% | ยฑ1.4 |
| First 2 weeks after it (2,443 matches) | 67.1% | 68.7% | ยฑ1.8 |
| Rest of the season (59,033 matches) | 68.6% | 69.1% | ยฑ0.4 |
What strikes me is that the market already knows week 2 is wobbly. It prices those favourites shorter on confidence, and results land almost exactly where the prices sit. The uncertainty is real, but it is not hidden.
Window 2Backing every favourite still loses, just slowly
This chart turns those rates into money at closing prices. Backing every favourite returned โ1.8% in week 1, โ1.9% in week 2 and โ1.0% at the Australian Open, against โ1.8% over all matches. None of that is profit, and the differences are small enough that I would not build a staking plan on them.
The underdog column is where the damage sits. Blind underdog backing returned โ10.1% in week 1 and โ15.7% at the Australian Open, against โ6.8% over all matches.
View the data: flat-stake returns by week of the season
| Back favourite | Back underdog | |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 (season opener) | โ1.8% | โ10.1% |
| Week 2 (Slam warm-up) | โ1.9% | โ7.0% |
| Australian Open | โ1.0% | โ15.7% |
| First 2 weeks after it | 0.0% | โ8.5% |
| Rest of the season | โ2.0% | โ6.1% |
| All matches | โ1.8% | โ6.8% |
Melbourne is the harshest place on the calendar to chase long prices. Week 2 is the kindest of the January windows for underdogs at โ7.0%, which matches an underdog winning 35.0% of week-2 matches against 30.8% in week 1.
Window 3Short-priced favourites held firm when the season opened
Splitting favourites by price band shows where the opening weeks differ. Those rated 80%+ won 90.4% of 436 week-1 matches, against 88.3% of 11,362 such matches in the rest of the season. At the Australian Open the top band reached 91.1%.
The coin-flip end tells a different story. Favourites rated 50-60% won 52.6% in week 1 and 53.1% in week 2, against 55.0% in the rest of the season.
Smallest cell: 139 matches.
View the data: favourite win % by price band and week
| 50-60% | 60-70% | 70-80% | 80%+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 52.6% | 66.0% | 77.9% | 90.4% |
| Week 2 | 53.1% | 67.8% | 74.8% | 88.5% |
| Australian Open | 53.5% | 65.0% | 78.9% | 91.1% |
| Rest of season | 55.0% | 65.0% | 75.8% | 88.3% |
My reading is that January rust shows up in the narrow matches, not the mismatches. A clear class gap survives the off-season; a slight edge on paper is far less dependable on a hot hard court before anyone has found rhythm. The smallest cell holds 139 matches, so the corners of this grid are thin.
Window 4The WTA warm-up week leaned towards favourites
Separating the tours sharpens the week-2 picture. WTA favourites in week 2 won 66.1% against 64.4% priced, a return of โ0.3%, close to break-even. ATP favourites in the same week won 64.0% against 64.4%, returning โ3.5%.
Week 1 runs the other way: ATP favourites won 70.6% against 69.2% priced for โ1.2%, while WTA favourites returned โ2.4%.
| Window | Matches | Priced | Won | Gap | Fav return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP ยท Week 1 | 1,152 | 69.2% | 70.6% | +1.4 | โ1.2% |
| ATP ยท Week 2 | 724 | 64.4% | 64.0% | โ0.4 | โ3.5% |
| ATP ยท Rest of season | 30,384 | 69.1% | 69.7% | +0.5 | โ1.9% |
| WTA ยท Week 1 | 1,166 | 67.5% | 67.9% | +0.5 | โ2.4% |
| WTA ยท Week 2 | 760 | 64.4% | 66.1% | +1.7 | โ0.3% |
| WTA ยท Rest of season | 28,649 | 68.1% | 68.5% | +0.4 | โ2.1% |
The main caveat belongs here. These windows blend events of different levels on both tours, so part of any difference reflects draw quality rather than the date, and gaps of one or two points sit inside the statistical ranges for samples this size. I treat them as leanings worth knowing, not edges worth trusting.
Best window
- Respect week-2 uncertainty
Favourites won only 65.0% in the Slam warm-up week, so expect more upsets and size stakes accordingly. The market already prices this in at 64.4%, so do not assume it is being missed.
- Avoid blind Melbourne underdogs
Backing every underdog at the Australian Open returned โ15.7%, the worst figure of any window. Any long-priced play there needs a specific reason beyond hoping for a shock.
- Trust clear mismatches early
Favourites rated 80%+ won 90.4% in week 1, while those rated 50-60% won just 52.6%. The opening week punishes thin edges far more than big class gaps.
Questions bettors ask
Do tennis favourites win less often in the first week of the season?
Not really. Favourites won 69.2% in week 1, almost identical to the 69.3% across all matches, and slightly above their 68.3% priced chance.
Is the week before the Australian Open good for underdogs?
It is the most open January window, with underdogs winning 35.0% of week-2 matches. Backing them all still returned โ7.0%, so the extra upsets are largely reflected in the prices.
Should I back favourites at the Australian Open?
Favourites won 75.0% there against 73.6% priced, yet backing every one still returned โ1.0%. That is a smaller loss than elsewhere, not a profit.
I'm Edmund Hartley, based in Bristol, and I write the tennis betting predictions at fixedmatches.vip โ where surface, scheduling and form outweigh the rankings.
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