Do T20 League Favourites Win More as the Season Goes On?
In T20 franchise cricket the opening stretch of a league season is where ratings mislead most. Favourites barely break even early, then settle into a steadier edge.
Written by Daniel LimCricket Match Predictions specialist
- Sport
- Cricket
- Question
- How often does the higher-rated side win at each stage of a T20 league season, from the first fifth of fixtures to the playoffs?
- Sample
- Men's T20 franchise leagues (IPL, BBL, T20 Blast, PSL, CPL, BPL, Super Smash, SA20, ILT20, MLC, LPL), 2008-2026, 5,369 decided games
- Rating favourites, all decided games55.1%
- Favourites in the first fifth49.8%
- Favourites, rest of the league stage56.7%
- Favourites in the playoffs53.4%
Every franchise season starts the same way for me. The ratings say one side is stronger, and I have to decide how much to trust them before a ball has been bowled with the new squads. This study checks how much I should, and it feeds into my cricket betting tips page whenever a league stage gets under way.
The headline answer is clear. Across 5,369 decided games the higher-rated side won 55.1%, but in the first fifth of the league stage that fell to 49.8%. From the second fifth onward favourites won 56.7%. The playoffs give some of that edge back, at 53.4%.
Window 1Early-season favourites fall well short of their ratings
Each row sets what the ratings expected against what actually happened. In the first fifth the rating gap implied favourites should win 58.2%, and over 1,017 games they won 49.8%. The range on that figure is ยฑ3.1 points, so this is not a few odd results distorting the picture.
Then the two dots meet. In the second fifth favourites won 57.7% against an expected 58.4%, and in the middle fifth it was 58.4% against 58.5%. Once the ratings have absorbed a few weeks of the new squads, they describe the league almost exactly.
Favourite = higher pre-match team rating (Elo-style, built from earlier results in the same competition).
View the data: rating favourites: expected vs actual win rate
| Rating expected | Actually won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First fifth (1,017 games) | 58.2% | 49.8% | ยฑ3.1 |
| Second fifth (974 games) | 58.4% | 57.7% | ยฑ3.1 |
| Middle fifth (987 games) | 58.5% | 58.4% | ยฑ3.1 |
| Fourth fifth (992 games) | 59.2% | 55.0% | ยฑ3.1 |
| Final fifth (963 games) | 59.1% | 55.9% | ยฑ3.1 |
| Playoffs (436 games) | 56.5% | 53.4% | ยฑ4.7 |
The run-in drifts apart again, though more gently. The fourth fifth came in at 55 against 59.2, the final fifth at 55.9% against 59.1%, and the playoffs at 53.4% against 56.5. That final row rests on only 436 games with a wider range of 4.7, so I treat it as a lean rather than a law.
Window 2The first fifth is effectively a coin flip
This chart strips away the expectations and asks something simpler: how far above 50% were favourites at each stage? The first fifth sits fractionally below zero, which for practical purposes is nothing. The edge then jumps to 7.7 in the second fifth and peaks at 8.4 in the middle fifth.
The shape matters because this is where the price gets set. Over the whole sample a favourite's fair odds come to 1.81, and in the playoffs to 1.87. If an opening-week favourite is priced shorter than either, on this evidence it has not earned it.
View the data: favourite win % above or below 50%
| Points above 50% | |
|---|---|
| First fifth | โ0.2 pts |
| Second fifth | +7.7 pts |
| Middle fifth | +8.4 pts |
| Fourth fifth | +5 pts |
| Final fifth | +5.9 pts |
| Playoffs | +3.4 pts |
My reading is that rating systems carry last season's team into this one with no reset. The auction, the draft and the overseas signings change the side, but the rating catches up only once results start arriving.
Window 3Close ratings early in the season are worse than a coin flip
Splitting by the size of the rating gap shows where the early weakness sits. When the gap was under 50, favourites won just 46.2% in the first fifth, so the nominal underdog actually came out ahead. A gap of 50-99 gave 51.5%, and only a gap of 100+ produced a real edge at 56.6%.
Look along the 100+ row and the strongest cell is the middle fifth at 62.6%. Big rating gaps become reliable only once the season has settled. In the opening stretch even a large gap carries far less weight than it later does.
Smallest cell: 40 games.
View the data: favourite win % by rating gap and stage
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | PO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap <50 | 46.2% | 55.3% | 57.2% | 52.2% | 55.1% | 54.8% |
| Gap 50-99 | 51.5% | 61.0% | 57.8% | 57.2% | 55.3% | 52.9% |
| Gap 100+ | 56.6% | 59.5% | 62.6% | 58.0% | 58.5% | 45.0% |
The playoff column has thin cells, and the smallest cell in the grid covers only 40 games. The 45 for big-gap playoff favourites looks dramatic, but I would not build a strategy on a sample that small.
Window 4Every league shows the early dip, some far more
Every league in the table has a negative gap between the first fifth and the rest, which matches the overall โ6.9. The size varies a lot. Super Smash sits at โ15.1 and the BPL at โ14.9, while the CPL is only โ2.2 and the PSL โ3.5.
The IPL is the one most bettors will care about. Its favourites won 45.1% early across 235 games and 53.5% afterwards, a gap of โ8.4. The BBL follows a similar pattern at โ7.2, and the T20 Blast is milder at โ4.3.
| League | Games | First fifth | Games | Rest | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPL | 235 | 45.1% | 909 | 53.5% | โ8.4 |
| T20 Blast | 286 | 52.4% | 1,131 | 56.7% | โ4.3 |
| BBL | 124 | 51.6% | 468 | 58.8% | โ7.2 |
| BPL | 92 | 46.7% | 331 | 61.6% | โ14.9 |
| CPL | 78 | 57.7% | 307 | 59.9% | โ2.2 |
| PSL | 66 | 50.0% | 243 | 53.5% | โ3.5 |
| Super Smash | 48 | 43.8% | 185 | 58.9% | โ15.1 |
Sample size needs watching here. Super Smash has only 48 first-fifth games, so its 43.8% is a warning sign rather than a firm measurement. The bigger caveat applies to the whole study: there are no match prices in this data, and the rating favourite is not always the side the market favours.
Best window
- Discount opening-week favourites
In the first fifth, rating favourites won 49.8% against an expected 58.2%. Treat a short price on a rated side early in the season with real suspicion.
- Avoid narrow early gaps
When the rating gap is under 50, first-fifth favourites won only 46.2%. In those games the underdog deserves a serious look.
- Trust ratings mid-season
By the middle fifth favourites won 58.4% against an expected 58.5%. Results matched the ratings almost exactly, and big gaps reached 62.6%.
Questions bettors ask
Do favourites win more often later in a T20 league season?
Yes, up to a point. Rating favourites won 49.8% in the first fifth and 56.7% across the rest of the league stage, with the peak at 58.4% in the middle fifth.
Are IPL favourites reliable at the start of the season?
Not on this evidence. IPL rating favourites won 45.1% in the first fifth across 235 games, compared with 53.5% for the rest of the league stage.
How often do favourites win T20 league playoffs?
Rating favourites won 53.4% of 436 playoff games, only a little above a coin flip. That works out to fair odds of 1.87.
I'm Daniel Lim, and I write the cricket match predictions at fixedmatches.vip โ covering Tests, ODIs and T20s with conditions weighted as heavily as form.
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