AFL Goal Kicking Accuracy by Month: More Behinds in Winter?
Winter doesn't wreck AFL goal kicking at open-air grounds. It thins out the scoring shots, and that's what pushes more games under 150 points.
Written by Tahlia WhitmoreAFL Predictions specialist
- Sport
- AFL
- Question
- Does AFL goal-kicking accuracy and the number of scoring shots change through the season, and is the winter dip a roof or weather effect?
- Sample
- AFL premiership matches 2000-2024 (2020 excluded), 4,731 matches
- Open-air accuracy in June52.7%
- Marvel Stadium accuracy in June55.3%
- Open-air accuracy in March53.0%
- June games finishing under 150 points19.4%
Every winter someone tells me the kicking falls apart once the cold sets in. I wanted to test that properly, so this study pools 4,731 AFL premiership matches from 2000-2024, with the 2020 season left out, and splits the roofed Marvel Stadium from the open-air grounds. The question is simple: does the month change how straight sides kick, and if totals drop, is it the boot or something else?
The answer surprised me. Open-air accuracy sat at 53.0% in March and 52.7% in June, barely a flicker. What does move is volume: scoring shots fall from 50.4 a game in March to 48.5 in June and July, and that is where the low totals come from. I lean on this when I build totals for my AFL tips page, and it changes how I read a cold-weather line.
Window 1Open-air accuracy barely moves while Marvel Stadium climbs
This chart tracks goals as a share of scoring shots, month by month, with the roofed ground split out. At open-air venues the line is close to flat: 53.0% in March, a low of 52.5% in April, 52.7% in June and 53.2% by August. If winter weather were ruining set shots, I'd expect a clear sag through the middle months, and it isn't there.
Marvel Stadium tells a different story. It starts level with everyone else at 53.2% in March, then climbs to 55.3% in June and holds at 55.0% and 55.1% through July and August.
View the data: goal-kicking accuracy by month
| Open-air grounds | Marvel Stadium (roof) | |
|---|---|---|
| Mar | 53.0% | 53.2% |
| Apr | 52.5% | 54.0% |
| May | 52.8% | 54.9% |
| Jun | 52.7% | 55.3% |
| Jul | 52.8% | 55.0% |
| Aug | 53.2% | 55.1% |
My read is that the gap comes less from open-air grounds dragging accuracy down and more from the dry deck under the roof lifting it as the season wears on. Sides playing there in winter can kick straighter than the general winter mood in the market suggests.
Window 2State by state, winter accuracy wobbles without a pattern
Splitting the open-air grounds by state, the cells jump about, but not in a consistent winter direction. Victoria's open-air grounds read 53.4% in March, 53.0% in June and 53.7% in July. Western Australia slips from 54.5% in March to 53.0% in June, while Queensland actually improves, from 49.8% in March to 51.9% in July.
New South Wales is the only state that softens steadily into mid-winter, from 51.9% in March to 51.1% in June and 50.5% in July, before bouncing back in August. South Australia peaks at 53.8% in June, which is hardly the picture of a wet-weather collapse.
Victorian figures exclude Marvel Stadium.
View the data: accuracy by state and month (open-air grounds)
| Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria (open-air) | 53.4% | 52.6% | 52.5% | 53.0% | 53.7% | 53.8% |
| South Australia (open-air) | 53.6% | 53.2% | 51.7% | 53.8% | 52.6% | 51.1% |
| Western Australia (open-air) | 54.5% | 52.2% | 53.4% | 53.0% | 53.6% | 54.0% |
| Queensland (open-air) | 49.8% | 51.3% | 53.1% | 51.4% | 51.9% | 52.5% |
| New South Wales (open-air) | 51.9% | 52.5% | 52.9% | 51.1% | 50.5% | 54.0% |
The honest caveat sits here. Month is only a stand-in for weather, because no rainfall data went into this, and outside Victoria each state has between 364 and 537 open-air games in total, so a single cell can shift a few points by chance. I treat Queensland's low March and South Australia's July dip as noise until they repeat.
Window 3Scoring shots thin out through June and July
This is where winter actually bites. Combined scoring shots run at 50.4 a game in March, 49.9 in April and 49.1 in May, before bottoming out at 48.5 in both June and July. August recovers to 49.2.
That matches what I see at the ground: a heavier ball, more stoppages, longer contested phases and fewer clean entries inside 50. Sides aren't missing more often; they're getting fewer looks at goal.
View the data: scoring shots per game by month
| Both teams combined, home-and-away 2000-2024 | |
|---|---|
| March (279) | 50.4 |
| April (875) | 49.9 |
| May (869) | 49.1 |
| June (717) | 48.5 |
| July (885) | 48.5 |
| August (838) | 49.2 |
For a totals bettor, that's the mechanism to price. A model that holds accuracy steady but trims shot volume in mid-winter sits much closer to the record than one that assumes kickers lose their nerve.
Window 4Low-scoring games peak in July before August rebounds
The table pulls it together. Goals per game slide from 26.8 in March to 25.9 in June and July, behinds from 23.7 to 22.6, while all-ground accuracy edges up from 53.1% to 53.4%. The share of games finishing under 150 points rises from 15.4% in March to 19.4% in June and 21.9% in July.
The other tail tells the same story: 31.5% of March games reached 200 or more, against 24.7% in June. Then August snaps back, with only 16.0% under 150 and 28.2% at 200-plus.
| Month | Games | Goals | Behinds | Accuracy | Under 150 pts | 200+ pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 279 | 26.8 | 23.7 | 53.1% | 15.4% | 31.5% |
| April | 875 | 26.4 | 23.5 | 52.8% | 16.7% | 28.9% |
| May | 869 | 26.2 | 22.9 | 53.3% | 16.8% | 27.2% |
| June | 717 | 25.9 | 22.6 | 53.4% | 19.4% | 24.7% |
| July | 885 | 25.9 | 22.6 | 53.4% | 21.9% | 26.1% |
| August | 838 | 26.4 | 22.8 | 53.7% | 16.0% | 28.2% |
I wouldn't put August's rebound down to drier weather alone; the shape of the run-in and sides chasing a finals spot may play a part. But the swing is consistent enough that I keep separate expectations for the deep-winter rounds and the final month.
Best window
- Ignore the winter-kicking myth
Open-air accuracy was 52.7% in June against 53.0% in March, so don't price a cold-weather under on the idea that kickers will spray it. Look at shot volume instead.
- Scrutinise July totals hardest
21.9% of July games finished under 150 points, the highest of any month here, with scoring shots down at 48.5. That's the window where an inflated total deserves the closest look.
- Treat the roof separately
Marvel Stadium accuracy reached 55.3% in June while open-air grounds sat at 52.7%. Don't apply a blanket winter discount to games played under the roof.
Questions bettors ask
Is AFL goal kicking less accurate in winter?
Not at open-air grounds in any meaningful way. Accuracy was 53.0% in March and 52.7% in June across 2000-2024; the bigger change is that games produce fewer scoring shots.
Are AFL totals lower in June and July?
On average, yes. Scoring shots fell to 48.5 per game in both months, and 21.9% of July games finished under 150 points compared with 15.4% in March.
Does the Marvel Stadium roof improve goal kicking?
In this data it does through winter. Accuracy under the roof rose from 53.2% in March to 55.3% in June, while open-air grounds stayed between 52.7% and 53.0% across those months.
I'm Tahlia Whitmore, and I write the weekly AFL predictions at fixedmatches.vip โ where ground size, travel and contested ball matter more than the ladder ever lets on.
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